Last Saturday I was standing on the sideline at a youth soccer game, clipboard in hand, when a dad I’ve known for years sidled up. He wasn’t asking about the game. “Chris, my daughter’s a junior. Everyone says Early Decision is the only way in. Is that true?” Her mom was two steps behind him, and I could tell from the look on her face that they’d been having this exact argument in the car.
I get it. I was the kid who needed to be perfect at everything, and I’ve spent a lot of years learning that panic is a terrible advisor. So to the parents reading this: breathe. And to the students: this is your story, not your neighbor’s. Here’s what happened this week, and what it actually means for you.
At a Glance
- Admissions officers expect another highly competitive cycle, even with the enrollment cliff.
- Early Decision is back in the headlines as an antitrust lawsuit against 32 colleges moves forward.
- The Education Department dropped its appeals over the PSLF employer rule.
- New federal rules will tie loan eligibility to graduates’ earnings, and rankings remain one input, not the answer.
The Cycle Is Still Competitive
A Kaplan survey of admissions officers at 212 top colleges found that about 90% expect this cycle to be as competitive as, or more competitive than, the last. Many families hear “enrollment cliff” and assume the doors are about to swing open. Only 56% of those officers said they worry about the cliff hitting their own school.
Add this: the Common App processed 10.7 million applications last cycle, up 6%. More applications per student means lower odds at selective schools, even if the number of seniors is flat.
One more wrinkle. Berkeley, which gets over 150,000 applications, says it reads every first-year file at least twice and considers achievements in context. It is test-blind, too. Policies differ by campus, so check each school directly.
“Selective schools are not getting easier. They’re getting louder.”
Early Decision Under the Microscope
A federal judge has allowed an antitrust suit against 32 colleges to go forward. The students who sued allege the schools agreed not to compete for Early Decision applicants. A new Inquirer essay also pointed out how lopsided the odds can look: Penn admitted 14.2% of ED applicants for the class of 2028 versus about 5.4% overall.
That gap is why ED feels like a golden ticket. But it is also a binding promise, and critics note it tends to favor families who don’t need to compare aid offers.
Financial Aid: PSLF Holds, Loans Get Scrutiny
The Education Department withdrew its appeals over rules that would have let it disqualify certain nonprofit and government employers from Public Service Loan Forgiveness. Courts had already blocked those rules, so the program stays intact for the millions of borrowers pursuing it, though processing problems linger.
Separately, a federal rule finalized in June ties Direct Loan eligibility to graduates’ earnings. The earliest impact is the 2028–29 award year, and the department estimates about 6% of programs are affected, with arts, music, social work and cosmetology programs flagged as most exposed.
“Forgiveness is a bonus. It is never a plan.”
Rankings, Data and the Legal Fine Print
The 2027 U.S. News Best Colleges list, released in September, put MIT at No. 1 and Princeton at No. 2. Rankings still anchor a lot of family conversations, but they are one input, and a rank tells you nothing about whether a place fits your kid.
In the courts, a federal judge earlier this year blocked an Education Department demand for detailed race- and sex-based admissions data from hundreds of colleges while that lawsuit continues. The fight over how schools report and review applicants after the Supreme Court’s affirmative action decision isn’t settled.
What to Do This Week
Not sure where your student fits?
Let’s build a plan that fits your student, not the crowd.
Schedule a ConversationFailure is only failure if you don’t learn from it, and none of this has to be perfect. It just has to be yours.
— Chris Parsons, College Planning Center
Carpe diem.
Owner & President, College Planning Center
Christopher Parsons is the founder of the College Planning Center and the author of Entering the Arena: Turning the College Admissions Odds in Your Favor. With 25 years in education — including time at The Citadel, the University of South Carolina, and years in the high school classroom — he helps students and families navigate the college admissions process on their own terms.
