This Week in College Admissions — October 14, 2026 Edition

You’ve probably heard that fewer high school graduates are coming, and that colleges will be desperate for students. A new Kaplan survey of admissions officers at the top 212 colleges suggests it isn’t that simple. Roughly nine in ten don’t expect admissions to get easier this year, and about four in ten expect it to be more competitive. Eighty-one percent worry about the cliff in general, but only 56 percent worry about their own school.

Read that last number again. Everybody sees the storm; most think it will hit the other guy. The schools most affected will likely be the ones you’ve never heard of, not the ones on every senior’s wish list.

I think of admissions as the arena in my book: everyone sprints for the same Cornucopia and wonders why it gets crowded. A shrinking pool of graduates doesn’t change that instinct. It just changes who is standing next to you when you grab for it. The better move is to step away from the pile and show an admissions office who you actually are.

Reports indicate the 2027–28 FAFSA opened around September 23, the earliest launch in the program’s history. The form has been streamlined, contributors can be invited by text message, and a fraud-detection system is part of the process. Some sources still say October 1, so confirm the current status on StudentAid.gov rather than trusting any single headline, including mine.

Whatever the exact date, it’s open now or about to be, and that’s the point. Some schools and states award aid until the money runs out.

I know the paperwork feels like a chore. But I’ve watched families lose real money by waiting until the holidays, and I’ve never once watched a family regret filing early. Also remember that the FAFSA is only one piece; many private schools use their own forms, so check each school’s requirements.

In August, a federal judge in Massachusetts let an antitrust suit proceed against Dartmouth and 31 other colleges. The plaintiffs argue binding early decision programs helped schools avoid competing on price. The judge dismissed claims against the Consortium on Financing Higher Education, the Common App and Scoir, but the case against the colleges continues. Nothing has been decided on the merits, and the schools haven’t been found at fault.

Nothing about this changes what you sign this fall. Early decision is still a binding agreement to enroll if admitted.

The deeper question for families is honest self-assessment. Early decision rewards students who really know what they want, and it punishes the ones who apply out of panic. If your student can’t say why a school is number one, that tells you something.

A proposed IRS rule targeting campus DEI programs has private colleges asking whether their tax-exempt status could be at risk. Separately, the administration proposed a $70,000 fee for international students who work in the U.S. through optional practical training, and higher education groups sued over changes to curricular practical training. An Education Department report also found that more than a thousand colleges have not fully submitted required student outcomes data, so some of the numbers families rely on have gaps.

Much of this is proposed, litigated or unsettled. I’d watch it, not panic over it.

The common thread is uncertainty, and uncertainty is exactly when families make rushed decisions. Slow down, verify what you read, and keep your eyes on the schools themselves rather than the noise around them.